Enrique
Krauze

In pre-Hispanic Mexico, the Aztec emperor, the tlatoani, ''he who speaks,'' was considered to be almost a god. And from the Spanish conquest in 1521 to the achievement of Mexican independence in 1821, 63 viceroys ruled New Spain, on behalf of a distant king who never once crossed the ocean. They were administrators, judges, commanding generals, ''fathers to their people.'' From both these sources came a tradition of centralized, divinely sanctioned power that has lasted -- under different forms -- almost to the present day.

This tradition makes it easy to be cynical about democracy in Mexico. After all, the country, while nominally democratic, has remained firmly in the hands of one ruling party for seven decades.

But in the elections to be held tomorrow, Mexicans seem about to take a major step toward real change. I am optimistic. For the first time, Mexico is witnessing the emergence of a genuine multiparty system. And polls suggest that Mexicans are poised to loosen the grip of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, known as the PRI. Support for opposition parties is now so widely recognized that any gains they make cannot be wiped out by fraud, as in the past. Independent national and international observers will be monitoring the vote.

Also for the first time, Mexico City voters will elect a mayor; until now, the president has appointed the mayor. Whoever is elected to the second most important political post in the country will have considerable clout as a counterweight to the president.

Opposition parties, particularly the center-right National Action Party, appear to be leading in a number of races for the lower house of the Congress; if the PRI fails to win a majority of 42 percent in the lower house, President Ernesto Zedillo, who has three years left in his term, will have to negotiate legislation and budgets with the opposition.

The polls also show a strong lead for Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, the leftist opposition candidate for mayor of Mexico City. In 1988, Mr. Cardenas ran for president and lost to Carlos Salinas de Gortari in a vote marked by allegations of fraud. Because of his tenacious opposition to Mr. Salinas and the PRI, Mr. Cardenas has benefited from the former President's fall into disgrace.

Mr. Zedillo seems to have recognized the need for real democracy. He has given full autonomy to the government agency that oversees elections -- an agency that had been merely an arm of the ruling party.

In their entire history, Mexicans have known barely 11 years of real democracy. Caudillos dominated Mexico in the 19th century, except for a period of limited democracy from 1867 to 1876. The only other period of democracy -- 15 months -- came from 1910 to 1911, at the beginning of the Mexican Revolution.

In the 30's, a different kind of autocracy emerged: a virtually all-powerful president who would reign for six years but then have to step down, choosing his successor from an oligarchy known as the Revolutionary Family, whose party was the PRI. Elections were held, but the candidate of the PRI would always win.

The first crisis of the modern era erupted in 1968, when Government forces massacred hundreds of dissident students. The next two Presidents, Luis Echeverria and Jose Lopez Portillo, tried to deal with social unrest and the needs of the country with enormous spending sprees. Their administrations led the country to economic bankruptcy.

When Mr. Salinas took office in 1988, he aimed to make Mexico a ''first world'' economic power. But he continued the anti-democratic methods of the past, and his administration was later tainted by reports of corruption. In the end, this Harvard-trained technocrat left his successor the worst economic crisis in Mexican history, beginning with the collapse of the peso.

Tomorrow, Mexicans finally have a real chance to break with their country's authoritarian tradition. This election comes at a time when support for the PRI is eroding because Mexicans are more dissatisfied than ever with their continual economic crises and their political system. Perhaps they will have the fiesta they have long awaited, a celebration of democracy.

Publicado en The New York Times, 5 de julio de 1997.